There’s much talk these days of disintegrating states. By this I mean
countries facing secessionist movements. A country like Syria that seems to be
headed towards a total break up comes to mind. The idea that states are not etched
in stone is not a new concept. There are currently 193 member states at the United
Nations but expect new states to join. This does not mean that countries will
completely disintegrate as happened in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.
Rather, expect regions to secede while leaving the remaining state viable as both a
political and legal identity.
Most separatist groups represent minority groups within existing states
searching for a more secure future. Minority groups can be based along racial,
ethnic, tribal, religious, and linguistic lines. They tend to cluster in certain
geographic locations within a state, often along border regions where ethnic kin
dominate on the other side of the border. Very few pundits expect hundreds of new
states to be created, but expect a certain number to emerge.
Whether the creation of new states is a good or bad thing is still open to
debate. Minorities who become the majority have a nasty habit of mistreating
their own minorities. Whether they become democratic or autocratic is also open
to question. In the case of Eritrea, a new state founded in 1993 after seceding from
Ethiopia, a one party autocratic state was eventually created. Other states like
South Sudan, a country that seceded from Sudan in 2011, seem to be facing their
own internal divisions based on ethnicity, religion, and tribalism. And finally, new
states like Timor-Leste continue to suffer from poverty and high employment.
There are many ways to keep new states from emerging. One way is to do as
the Russians did with regard to the Chechens who sought to secede from Russia in
the 1990s. Moscow ruthlessly put down the uprising with thousands losing their
lives. Not a good model to follow! Other states try a more democratic approach by
granting minority groups some local autonomy as the Spanish are doing with the
Catalonians and Basque people in Spain.
Here’s a quick survey of past and future states, starting with Europe.
Czechoslovakia was a small Central European country that emerged from the ashes
of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, declaring independence in 1918. It officially
dissolved in 1993 with the Slovaks and Czechs going their own separate ways.
More to the south, Montenegro seceded from Serbia in 2006, leaving Serbia a
landlocked nation. These were peaceful farewells in contrast to what transpired
in the former Yugoslavia. Formed in 1918 after the end of the First World War,
this nation of south Slavs disintegrated in the 1990s into a half dozen states, but
not before thousands were killed with millions more ethnically cleansed. So much
for Slavic unity as the framers of the Treaty of Versailles had hoped for. But the
biggest break up of them all was the USSR. Created in 1922, it emerged from
the Russian Revolution and went on to massacre millions of poor souls while
imprisoning millions more in Gulags. Thankfully it dissolved as a state in 1991,
putting an end to the Cold War, and creating over a dozen new states in both
Europe and Central Asia.
Asia and Africa is our next stop. South Vietnam was a country located
in South East Asia that existed as a separate state from 1949-75. It was forcibly
united with North Vietnam with the fall of Saigon in 1975 and is now part of the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Meanwhile in Africa, South Sudan, a Christian
and Animist country, seceded from the Muslim and Arab speaking north to form
its own state. As mentioned, it now faces its own sectarian divisions. The Horn of
Africa has its own separatist tendencies. Eritrea officially seceded from Ethiopia in
1993, making the later country the most populous landlocked country in the world
with 93,000,000 people. Back in Asia, East Timor, a Christian country, seceded
from largely Muslim Indonesia in 2002.
So where are future hot spots? They’re pretty much on every
continent except in South America and Australia. Let’s start with Canada, one of
America’s most important trading partners. Quebec, the only predominantly
French speaking province in the country, came close to seceding in 1995 when the
separatists led by Lucien Bouchard took 49.42% of the vote. Too close for
comfort for committed federalists like myself! Things have quieted down but what
if Quebecers elect a charismatic leader? Add a worsening economy, unnecessary
meddling from the central government in Ottawa and a few incendiary incidents in
the rest of the country, and you may get the perfect storm. Not likely but you never
know! The United Kingdom like Canada is one of the most democratic and
prosperous countries in the world. But like Canada, it too faces a separatist
problem. In 2011 the Scottish National Party won overall majority in the Scottish
Parliament and now intends to hold a referendum on independence in 2014.
Meanwhile across the Channel we have Belgium, where the Flemish speakers in
the north and French speaking Walloons in the south seem to have problems
forming governments. Political parties are even formed along strictly linguistic
lines. But countries with better weather also have their own separatist problems
starting with Spain, where Catalonians and Basques continue to fight for
independence despite Madrid’s transfer of powers to local Parliaments. It seems
local autonomy is insufficient. So there you have it: prosperous (Spain excluded)
and democratic states have their own separatist movements to deal with and no
amount of power sharing seems to satisfy local nationalists.
The Middle East has its own separatist problems to deal with which is
understandable considering the amount of massacres and violations in human
rights that have taken place there since these countries were created after World
War Two. Iraq is a classic example. Composed of three main groups, namely,
Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias, the Kurds in the north have all but seceded. Who can
blame them when you consider the persecution and mass murder they faced under
Saddam Hussein’s Sunni dominated tyranny? Syria is exhibit two. With only 12%
of the population, Alawites control the country’s military and political apparatus,
and have never hesitated to remind the Sunni majority of this fact through
massacres of unarmed Sunni civilians. Expect them to form their own state along
the coast should the Sunni take power. Call it fear of retribution.
Some states however will remain intact no matter how brutal the
majority treats its minorities. India, China, and Russia, the so-called brick
countries, are a good example. With a population of only 143 million people,
Russia is the world’s biggest country. 80% are ethnic Russian but the country has
dozens of minority groups speaking some 27 officially recognized languages. To
see how far Moscow will go to protect the country’s physical integrity, one only
has to harp back to the Chechen war in the 1990s when Moscow used uncontrolled
force to put down a secessionist rebellion that saw thousands lose their lives. A
clear message no doubt for other regions in the Russian federation. Not to be
outdone with regard to brutality, China is another nation that will do whatever it
takes to keep regions with minority groups from seceding. With 1.3 billion people,
90% of whom are Han Chinese, minorities face both brutality and cultural
assimilation as Tibetans can attest to. Many of these minorities are located in the
northern part of China along the border regions with countries such as India and
Russia. Geo- political considerations thus come into play at the expense of
minority rights and aspirations. The Han Chinese are not even shy about pursuing
a policy of cultural assimilation by imposing Mandarin in schools to the detriment
of local languages. Lastly, India is the world’s second populous nation with 1.2
billion people and faces separatist movements from Kashmir in the north to Tamil
Nadu in the south. Other regions with separatist movements include Punjab and
Assam. India unlike China and Russia is a democratic country but this has not kept
the Indian army from committing atrocities in Muslim dominated Kashmir. The
problem in India could be alleviated by transferring certain powers to local
Parliaments, but India will likely remain a state with a strong central government.
So as we watch events unfold in the Ukraine where Ukrainian speakers in
the western and central areas of the country fight Russian speakers in the eastern
and southern regions for political power, we should ask ourselves what needs to be
done to keep countries from splintering into tiny states. We can start by insisting
that states respect basic human rights. But more can be done through federalism by
granting minorities local powers through regional Parliaments. Attempting to rule
from the central government will only lead to more friction and efforts to secede.
I may be biased as a Canadian, but the Canadian model as discussed in a previous
blog may be a good way to protect minority rights within a federal system. Other
examples include Switzerland where cantons are drawn along linguistic lines.
There you have it: two prosperous and democratic countries. Not bad models to
follow.