The issue of whether the West is in decline is one that many alarmists, especially
economists, political scientists, and business leaders are obsessed with. The
question is unfortunately both meaningless and incomplete. A more meaningful
approach would be to ask the following question: Is the West in decline and if so,
why and in relation to what?
China’s rise is no doubt the main reason why so many are concerned with the
West’s supposed decline. China is set to surpass the United States as the world’s
biggest economy sometime this century. Other emerging countries include India,
Brazil, and Indonesia.
The rise of the West no doubt corresponds to the decline of Imperial China as a
great super power, and to the conquest of Latin America by European powers.
More colonial expansion on the part of European powers would follow in Asia and
Africa. Europeans and Americans would with time come to dominate the
economies and fates of most people living on the planet. This was an anomaly
made possible by science and economic expansion as Europeans searched for both
resources and markets. Add the desire & zeal for spreading Christianity and you
had the perfect model for creating empires.
The notion that the West led by the United States would someday be forced to
contend with competing superpowers was best articulated by the late Harvard
political scientist, Samuel Huntington, who famously believed the world was
heading towards a “clash of civilizations”. Unfortunately this term has become
grossly distorted by pundits, most of whom have likely not read his book by the
same title. Many for example erroneously equate the notion of a “clash” with wars
and military conflicts worthy of a Star Wars sequel. Huntington instead argues that
the West cannot expect to lead the world forever, and that other civilizations will
seek their place in the sun. No one state or civilization can ever achieve total
domination forever. History, to use an old adage, repeats itself.
Civilizations with competing values will thus seek to increase their respective
spheres of influence by dominating geopolitically. And this brings us to
Huntington’s subsequent book “Who Are We?” Huntington’s book basically asks
whether Americans feel they have a nation and civilization worthy of protection
and admiration. The same question however can be asked of every citizen living in
a Western country, whether in North America or Europe. Namely, who are we and
do most of us here in the West feel we live in a country and culture worthy of
protection and admiration?
These are not questions that economists ever ask. A nation’s GDP and rate of
annual economic growth are more likely to be their measuring stick. Civil rights, a
clean environment, rule of law, right to free speech, gender and racial equality, not
to mention the right to participate in multi-party elections… these are not factors
that make their way into answering the question: Is the West in Decline?
Economists and political scientists worry that as China emerges as the world’s
biggest economy it will try to spread its influence globally. The world’s biggest
authoritarian state might consequently become a model for emerging states. And
this is where they get it wrong. The biggest factor likely to influence geopolitics in
the 21st century will be whether emerging states will be asked to choose between a
confident and proud nation/civilization like China, or a self-loathing and
politically and culturally divided West led by the United States. In short, will
political, cultural, and economic decline in the West relegate the West to the
sidelines? Will westerners feel they have anything to be proud of as the political
and economic power of the top 1% of wage earners keeps rising?
For sure the 1% phenomenon is an American one and not reflective of what is
taking place in other western countries. But the United States remains the West’s
economic and military leader, especially now that the European Union seems more
divided than ever.
Economic issues no doubt remain important. In sum, both the US and the EU need
to confront the dilemma of how to raise sufficient revenue so they can adequately
provide services for its citizens. These are internal structural problems tied to
policymaking, taxation and social benefits that have very little to do with China’s
rise, and instead point to a civilization that has become internally corrupt and
divided, both socially and politically.
But economics is not everything. China and India both represent great civilizations
that their citizens can be proud, but what of the West? Is Western Civilization
something that we in the West should all be proud of? Is it worth fighting for?
Every country in the West is as divided today as it’s ever been since the end of the
Second World. But the situation in the Unites States is especially dire. These
divisions no doubt led to the election of Donald Trump as president. Political
partisanship in the US means it’s almost impossible to get any significant
legislation passed. The US political system is seen by most US citizens as
dysfunctional and beholden to special interest groups. The nation’s increasing
ethnic diversity is also perceived by many Americans as a threat to the nation’s
identity and fabric. In essence, it’s not only about the economy “stupid” as the old
adage goes. It’s about whether Americans feel united by common principles and
cultural attributes.
For a country like the United States the challenges run deep. Can a country built
along individualistic values ever develop a sense of the common good or feel
there’s a collective entity worth preserving? What does it mean to be an American
when you have racial and cultural divisions?
European Union states face similar problems, though not to the same degree as the
United States, at least not with regard to economic disparity. But questions
remain. What does it mean for example to be Scandinavian, German, French or
British now that these societies have become multi-cultural? Is there still a
national identity that citizens can be proud of? In sum, will Americans and
Europeans ever come to appreciate that ethnic and racial diversity is an asset rather
than a liability that countries like Japan could only envy?
CONCLUSION
History shows that all great states and civilizations deteriorate from within. They
decay culturally and economically as finances and revenues fail to pay for benefits
and services. But they also decay culturally as notions of the collective good gives
way to individual selfishness and group identity.
The West will have to make structural changes before it can ever get its economic
house in order. But it’s not just about economics as economists and politicians
would lead us to believe. The situation, in other words, may not be as dire as we
think. We in the West must instead ask ourselves whether we have a civilization
worth preserving, while continuing to respect other cultures and civilizations.
What for example are our advantages in comparison to the challenges faced in
countries like China and India? Would we ever want to live in a one party
authoritarian state like China regardless of how wealthy it becomes? Are India’s
religious and caste divisions something we could ever live with?
From literature to cinema the West has developed an extraordinary society that
most living in the West should be proud of. The Italian Renaissance, political
liberties, separation of church and state, and the Industrial and high tech
revolutions were all created by the West. Is there a way of giving a monetary value
to freedom and liberty so that we can add it to our GDP? Of course the system is
not perfect; no great civilization ever built a perfect system, but it is one worth
preserving and improving on. From equal rights for women and same sex couples
to religious equality, the West has a lot to offer the rest of the world. These great
achievements must be acknowledged and appreciated by those of us living in the
West while appreciating there is still much work to do. Self-loathing however is
not the way for the West to spread the more positive aspects of its civilization to
the rest of the world.
In the end emerging states will only seek to emulate the Chinese model if they see
the West in a state of internal decay, whether economically, culturally, or
politically. Emerging states will not, in sum, look to the West for inspiration if
internal divisions and partisanship here in the West continue to fuel the selfish
needs of individuals and special interest groups.
Joseph Nye, a colleague of Huntington’s at Harvard, is associated with the notion of “soft power” which can be contrasted from “hard power”. The former pertains to a nation’s cultural and intellectual attractions as opposed to hard power which makes reference to a nation’s military might. The West led by the United States has plenty of soft power. Its universities lead the world in research, its high tech and social media companies are admired around the world, and its cinema is watched by young people everywhere regardless of race or ethnicity.
Whether the West maintains its geo political influence will depend on getting its
financial house in order, building a cohesive culture that includes diversity while
striving for common values, and finding a way to be proud of its institutions and
culture. China can grow its economy as much as it desires and put as many naval
ships in the South China Sea as it can. Emerging states will still look to the West’s
political, legal, and cultural institutions for inspiration but only if the West is able
to deal with its internal divisions and challenges. Invading countries like Iraq,
disrespecting foreign cultures, demonizing migrants, and electing compromised
leaders like Donald Trump to the White House will only lead to the West’s decline.
