The rise of global demagogues is no doubt the most troubling phenomenon
confronting us as we proceed into the 21st century. These populists, intent on
destroying liberal democracy or its emergence, are found everywhere: from
developed countries to the emerging ones.
Creating a climate of fear is something that demagogues are good at. India’s Narendra Modi, Donald Trump of the United States, and the generals who rule Myanmar, are currently doing so with regard to their minorities. All it takes is a spark of some sort for our demagogues and would be demagogues to spring into action. The nation is at risk, they will argue, and something urgent and draconian must be done to assure peace, prosperity and harmony.
In the United States it’s the presence of 11 million undocumented immigrants, most of whom are law abiding and toiling at low wage jobs, that frightens the white working class. Add the fact that the white population is shrinking and millions of white working class voters suddenly feel they have a champion in a wealthy business man like Donald Trump. Other examples from around the world abound.
Let’s start with Europe, the birthplace of democracy. For the Hungarians, it’s the arrival of refugees from the Middle East. Never mind that most would eventually be diverted to Germany. As Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban famously remarked: Hungary is a Christian nation and it seeks to remain a Christian nation.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, in contrast, rose to power promising to end the war in Chechnya and take back natural resources sold at bargain prices to a handful of oligarchs at the end of the Cold War. Putin did as promised, but has also created a climate of fear where journalists and lawyers are tortured and assassinated without accountability.
In Poland a new law recently drafted by the government makes it illegal to associate Poland with the holocaust. The holocaust was, Polish nationalists assure us, strictly a German affair. The government has, in addition, “reformed” the court system to meet its own political agenda while gravitating towards Putin’s sphere of influence. President Andrzej Duda is, like India’s Modi, a potential demagogue. Both countries would best be served if voters voted them out of office.
Asia no doubt has its share of demagogues. In the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte uses the drug trade and high crime rate to attack the rule of law. Why arrest alleged drug dealers and provide them with due process and a fair trial when you can just shoot them on the spot? Duterte is clearly intent on revamping the legacy of that country’s late dictator, Ferdinand Marcos.
In Myanmar, a majority Buddhist country that is at the crossroads of South Asia and East Asia, the generals continue to expel and torture Muslims with impunity and no thought to either the rule of law or international law.
But India’s Modi is probably the most interesting of our global leaders. In all fairness, he is at this point in history more of a potential demagogue. A Hindu nationalist and leader of the BJP party that came to power in 2014, Modi is an economic reformer heading a pro-Hindu sectarian party in a country that is religiously and ethnically diverse.
Modi in many ways resembles Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who upon taking power put in place badly needed economic reforms before attacking the nation’s fragile democratic institutions. Erdogan accomplished this by imprisoning journalists and lawyers, thereby effectively limiting freedom of expression and weakening the rule of law. Modi will likely not go as far but it is a risk for the world’s most populous democracy to elect a leader who shows no affinity for the country’s minorities, especially Muslims.
South America is clearly represented by Venezuela, where a corrupt political system incapable of meeting the social and economic needs of its citizens made it possible for demagogues like Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro to assume power. Both leaders would eventually suspend civil rights, weaken the rule of law, and essentially create a one party authoritarian state.
In the Middle East, meanwhile, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad remains president of a country mired in a civil war that began in 2011. Assad is a prime example of what happens when leaders fail to develop civil institutions and political values based on the rule of law, especially where that country is divided by religion and ethnicity.
What then, are the solutions to fighting demagoguery? For starters, we know that of the countries listed, at least five hold free elections. It is thus up to voters in these countries to vote their populist leaders out of office when given the opportunity. But for those less fortunate citizens living in authoritarian states, peaceful and continuous demonstrations will likely remain the most important method for reforming the political system. Pressure from the outside can help but military intervention must be avoided.
International law could be of assistance but only if the United Nations Security Council removes the right of any one member to veto proposed resolutions. This will not likely occur as states tend to ignore human rights abuses committed by allies where it is perceived in their national interest to do so.
How technology is used will no doubt have an impact. A case in point is the manner in which Trump’s supporters were able to manipulate Facebook. Russia’s meddling on behalf of Trump by manipulating social media as well as Trump’s ability to mobilize supporters through twitter also helped him to narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton.
But the most effective method for fighting demagoguery remains the rule of law consisting of an independent judiciary and a written constitution, where no one is above the law, and where basic rights are protected regardless of who is in power. This will no doubt be the main challenge for countries fighting demagoguery in the 21st century, whether for a well-established democracy like the United States or emerging nations.
